Contents Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Evolution of Global Climate and Ecological Eavironment 1 1.1.1 Impact of Human Activities on the Earth's Environment and the Livable Earth 1 1.1.2 Impact of Human Activities on Global Climate Change 4 1.1.3 Imupacts and Risks of Climate Change on Natural and Hum:an Systems 5 1.2 Historical Evolution of Climate， Ecological Environment and Socio Economic Development in China 7 1.2.1 Overview 7 1.2.2 Historical Changes in Climate， Ecological Environment and Socio-Economic Development 8 1.2.3 Contemporary Changes in Climate and Ecological Environment 10 1.2.4 Changes in Modern Social and Economic Development I2 1.3 Future Changes and Transformation and Development 14 1.3.1 Future Changes and Risks in Climate and Ecological .Environment I5 1.3.2 Actions to Deal with Climate Change and Protect Environment 17 1.3.3 Transition to Sustainable Development 19 1.4 Contribution of China's Assessment Reports on Climate，Environment and Ecology 20 1.5 Overview of This Assessment 22 References 23 Chapter 2 Observed Climate Change and Ecological Environment Evolution and Their Causes 25 2.1 Observed Facts 25 2.1.1 Atmosphere 25 2.1.2 Hydrosphere 28 2.1.3 Cryosphere 30 2.1.4 Ecosystem 32 2.1.5 Planetary Environment 36 2.2 Extreme Events 37 2.2.1 Extreme Temperature Events 38 2.2.2 Extreme Precipitation Events 38 2.2.3 Typhoon and Severe Convective Weather 41 2.2.4 Sand-Dust Storms and Haze 42 2.2.5 Cryospheric Events 42 2.2.6 Forest Fire Weather 44 2.2.7 Compound Extreme Events 45 2.2.8 Attribution of Extreme Events 46 2.3 Impacts of Human Activities on Climate Change in China 46 2.3.1 Impact of Human Activities on Atmospheric Composition and the Generated Radiative Forcing 46 2.3.2 Impact of Human Activities on Surface Solar Radiation and Surface Air Temperature in China 52 2.3.3 Impact of Human Activities on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Precipitation in China 53 2.3.4 Impact of Human Activities on Extreme Climate Events in China 54 2.4 Large- Scale Factors Affecting Climate Change in China 55 2.4.1 East Asian Monsoon 55 2.4.2 Main Modes and Teleconnections of Atmospheric Circulations 59 2.4.3 Ocean Modes 60 2.4.4 Arctic Sea Ice and Snow Cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 62 2.4.5 Snow Cover in Eurasia 63 2.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Socio-Economic Systems 64 2.5.1 The Impact Extent of Climate Change on Socio- Economic Systems 64 2.5.2 Regional Differences in the Impact of Climate Change on Socio- Economic Systems 71 References 77 Chapter 3 Projections of Future Climate Change and Risks 79 3.1 Anthropogenic Drivers of Future Climate Change 79 3.2 Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models 82 3.2.1 Earth System Models 82 3.2.2 Regional Climate Models 83 3.2.3 Integrated Assessment Models 86 3.3 Projections of Future Climate Change 88 3.3.1 Temperature 88 3.3.2 Precipitation92 3.4 Projections of Changes in Extreme Events 93 3.4.1 Temperature Extremes 93 3.4.2 Precipitation Extremes 96 3.4.3 Compound Extreme Events 98 3.5 Exposure and Vulnerability 98 3.5.1 Observed Exposure and Vulnerability Changes 99 3.5.2 Possible Changes in Socio- Economic Exposure and Vulnerability to Rainstorms and Flood Disasters 102 3.5.3 Possible Changes in Socio- Economic Exposureand Vulnerability to Droughts 102 3.5.4 Possible Changes in Population Health Exposure and Vulnerability to Heatwaves 105 3.6 Future Climate Change Risks 110 3.6.1 Water Resources 111 3.6.2 Agriculture 113 3.6.3 Cryosphere 115 3.6.4 Ecosystem 116 3.6.5 Human Habitat 117 3.6.6 Human Health 121 3.6.7 Major Projects 121 References 127 Chapter 4 Adaptation and Mitigation: Measures， Actions and Effects 129 4.1 Climate Change Adaptation 130 4.1.1 Global Progress 130 4.1.2 Adaptation Strategies 131 4.1.3 Adaptation Technologies and Measure Options 133 4.1.4 China's Adaptation to Climate Change: Actions and Effects 138 4.2 Climate Change Mitigation 146 4.2.1 Global Progress 146 4.2.2 Mitigation Technology aund Measure Option 150 4.2.3 China's Emission Reduction Policies and Effects 152 4.2.4 Emission Reduction and Effects in China 155 4.3 Synergized Effects of Adaptation and Mitigation 156 4.3.1 Adaptation， Mitigation and Their Interactions 156 4.3.2 China's Synergized Adaptation and Mitigation Measures， Actions and Effects 160 4.3.3 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Under the Goals of the Paris Agreement 163 References 164 Chapter 5 The Development Pathways with Climate Resilience 165 5.1 Global and China's Carbon Emission Budgets and Implementation Pathway Under the Warming Targets of the Paris Agreement 165 5.1.1 Global and China's Carbon Emission Budgets 165 5.1.2 Global Emission Reduction Pathways 167 5.1.3 China's Emission
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