推薦序二應(yīng)對帝國衰退之道

國際勞工研究與信息組織資深研究員肖恩?哈丁

我同意作者有關(guān)美國實力在衰退的說法。實際上，大概從20世紀(jì)60年代起，美國的全球經(jīng)濟主導(dǎo)地位就開始動搖。美國應(yīng)對這種變化的方式，是公然的單邊軍事主義與多邊主義的混合體。比如，在20世紀(jì)70年代，歐洲國家，比如德國和法國，以及亞洲的日本，國家實力開始增長，在全球經(jīng)濟中的某些方面與美國競爭。美國的應(yīng)對之策是創(chuàng)立G7/G8，把這些國家拽入一個由美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的聯(lián)盟。

在美國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)之下，G7開始在推動全球新自由主義方面扮演中心角色。當(dāng)然，這并沒有阻止美國經(jīng)濟實力的下滑，但是，它確實在某種程度上有效，其他G7/G8國家接受了美國在政治和軍事領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)。

不過，到了20世紀(jì)90年代，新的地區(qū)大國也開始崛起，比如巴西、中國、印度，以及在某種程度上的南非。這就進一步侵蝕了美國的經(jīng)濟實力。

在某些時候，美國也通過多邊方式——在20世紀(jì)90年代創(chuàng)立G20——應(yīng)對這些國家，比如巴西和南非等。這也是為了將這些地區(qū)大國納入某種程度上的松散的聯(lián)盟。這對跨國公司非常有利，因為加入G20的國家，比如巴西和南非，成為新自由主義的重要的地區(qū)推手。

雖然如此，但美國還使用公然的單邊主義和軍事主義方式，警告可能的全球競爭者，比如中國和俄羅斯。這兩個國家不像巴西和南非那樣，愿意繼續(xù)接受美國的主導(dǎo)。美國對伊拉克和阿富汗的入侵，其目的是控制石油和天然氣的供應(yīng)，并將俄羅斯和中國關(guān)在中東之外。美國與朝鮮的政治對質(zhì)，也可以被理解為對中國的警告。

實際上，美國一直在應(yīng)對其實力的衰退，并維持在某種形式上的主導(dǎo)地位。它采取的一種方式是，多邊的政治機制以及富有侵略性的軍國主義的混合體。美國對伊拉克、阿富汗以及朝鮮的戰(zhàn)略，其實主要是針對像中國這樣的國家。當(dāng)然，在如何應(yīng)對其實力衰退方面，美國精英中也存在不確定性和分歧。

美國實力的衰退確實創(chuàng)造了南方國家與美利堅帝國決裂的可能性。委內(nèi)瑞拉就是一個好例子。

英文原文：

英文原文：

I agree that US power is in decline. In fact, it has been in decline since about the 1960s as,since then,its global economic dominance has been shrinking.The way the US has dealt with this has involved a combination of multilateralism mixed with overt unilateral militarism.For example,by the 1970s,European countries like Germany and France,along with Japan,started growing and in some ways competing with the US in the global economy.The US’s response to this was to create the G7/G8.The idea was to draw these powers into an alliance,headed up by the US itself. Under the leadership of the US,the G7 has played a central role in promoting neoliberalism globally.Of course this has not stopped the decline of the US ’s economic power,but it did work in a sense that it got many of these other G7/G8 powers to accept the dominance of the US in political and militarily terms.

By the 1990s,however,new regional powers had also arisen, such as Brazil,China,India and to a lesser extent South Africa.This has created a further erosion of the US’s economic power.In some ways the US has also used a multilateral approach to deal with some of these countries,like Brazil and South Africa,by creating the G20 in the late 1990s.Again it was trying to draw in these regional powers into some kind of lose alliance.This has been very effective for multinational corporations,as countries involved in the G20 like Brazil and South Africa have been strong regional promoters of neoliberalism.Nonetheless,the US has also used overt unilateralism and militarism as a warning to possible global competitors like China and Russia,who have proven less amicable than Brazil and South Africa in accepting the continued dominance of the US.Hence the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan,which were aimed at securing oil supplies and shutting out Russia and China from the Middle East.The US’s political confrontation with North Korea could also be read as a symbolic warning to China.

So essentially,the US has been trying to deal with its decline－and maintain some form of dominance－through a mixture of multilateral political maneuvers and at times aggressive militarism,which has been symbolically aimed at countries like China through surrogate actions in Iraq,Afghanistan and to a lesser extent North Korea.This perhaps also reflects the uncertainty and divisions amongst the US elite on how to deal with their declining power.Of course, the decline of the US does create possibilities for countries in the South to begin to break free from US imperialism. A good example of this is Venezuela.（Shawn Hattingh，International Labour Research and Information Group)